STEWART R. FLINK

WHEN, WHY & HOW

I vividly recall sitting in an environmental studies class at the impressionable age of twenty. It was the only undergraduate level environmental studies class offered at the university I attended in the mid-70’s.

No question that I was daydreaming when I was startled back to reality after the professor’s indelible prediction: “Lake Michigan could run out of water by the year 2000.” That statement certainly got my attention, especially having grown up in Chicago until I left for college. I was frightened for the remainder of the class, and then I let go of the fear-mongering statement.

For some reason, that prediction was stuck deep inside me all the way until the late 1990’s when I knew without a doubt that the premonition would not occur, and Lake Michigan was going to survive longer than my children and possibly grandchildren. As I sit here forty-five years later, the “when” of this novel was a seed planted that has been germinating ever since.

The “why” question is complex, as I have been tracking global freshwater supplies ever since May of 1975. When it comes to the world’s freshwater, it appears that mankind is in a squandering phase of folly, spinning hopelessly out of control without a long-range solution. Tempting fate at its very core, this novel is meant to be a wake-up call for humanity, and the possibility of what the state of our watery world may evolve into in the next quarter of a century, as the supply of fresh water decreases at an increasing rate. It is going to be a geopolitical mess at the minimum, and something that could morph into mass emigration to high per capital sources of drinking water, military skirmishes, riots, and dare I say an Armageddon scenario, like the story of Noah’s ark in reverse, but due to extreme droughts. Or to paraphrase a saying, “It’s the rising tide that destroys our planet’s coastlines and islands.” Again, For All the Water is not meant to be a scare tactic novel, but for every one of us to focus our lenses on a seemingly insolvable problem.

Consider certain facts and recent events-

The cleanest drinking water by country in the worlds are:

Denmark (purported to have better tap than bottled water)
Iceland (95% of water comes from springs in the ground)
Greenland (owned by Denmark)
Finland
Columbia
New Zealand
Sweden
Canada

The ten worst countries for access to clean water (Source: World Health Organization)

Niger                           least developed country in the world, according to the UN
Papua New Guinea    100x the population of Greenland
Republic of Congo
Chad                           3x the population of Finland
Ethiopia                      3.5x the population of Canada
Eritrea
Somalia
Uganda                       5x the population of Sweden
Angola                        6x the population of Denmark
Mozambique              10x the population of New Zealand

Notice the pattern that most of these countries that made the top eight have sparse populations and no country with over 55 million people made the list.

Almost half of the population worldwide depends on access to the water flowing from the Tibetan Plateau. There is tension already brewing between China and India as China becomes stressed for water, a thirst that may only be quenched with Tibet’s Yalong Tsangpo River, known in India as the Brahmaputra. According to the Asia Times, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao admits the “survival of the Chinese nation” depends on whether it can secure enough water. International interests have been escalating because of China’s big plans to divert the Yalong Tsangpo river to use for hydro-electric power as well as a water source for its dry regions in the north and northwest.

Uruguay, a stable democracy with a tradition of farming and livestock prowess, is experiencing a crushing shortage of freshwater due to an extended drought- its worst in 74 years. The state has resorted to mixing its dwindling freshwater with salt water to extend its life, a health risk for many of its citizens. Montevideo, its capital and largest city, is down to a few days’ supply.  Consider the economic devastation given that greater than 80% of the land can be used for agriculture and the economy is dependent on the export of meat, grains, and dairy, all of which thrive on the abundance of freshwater.

Arizona, particularly the large-populated Phoenix area, has deliberately slowed down the construction of residential properties, partially due to rationing and diverting its main source, the Colorado River. Recently, a spokesperson stated that the decision was based on a 100-year analysis of the water tables, and that there is no imminent danger of running out of water. What makes anyone think that politicians or bureaucrats in Arizona would admit to their constituencies when water supplies will dry up to the point of rationing?

Predictions in the next 20-25 years are rather stark, and the following are based on a diminishing supply and an increasing demand of fresh water. At the current consumption rate, cities such as Beijing, Sao Paulo, and Cape Town, a city that has already run out of water several times and where you can shower for ninety seconds, drink a half liter per day, cook one meal, and wash hands twice a day, leaving enough left over to brush your teeth and doing laundry.

A glaring example is Bangladesh, a delta region of some 170 million people. Although fresh water has been plentiful for centuries, the increase in droughts, deluge, cyclones, and saltwater have wreaked havoc on its citizens. As land washes away, people are forced to move to other villages and towns. The have learned the art of drinking rainwater, every drop of it. The region has a total of 64 districts, and half are vulnerable to water insecurity caused by climate change. The inherent danger of excess salinity contaminating the soil and freshwater is a constant threat due to rising sea levels.

The catastrophic element is the scarcity of water, evident in every continent simultaneously, except for Antarctica, which researchers tell us holds over 80% of the world’s fresh water supply, albeit in the form of ice. The situation is so acute that more than half of the drinking water in Bangalore is lost to wastewater, and 85% of the water in city lakes is not drinkable. In Chennai, India ten million liters of drinking water are trucked in per day. Mexico City, Cairo, Istanbul, Jakarta and even Melbourne are looming cities for water instability and scarcity.

Throw in the Hail Mary of solving for the elimination of C8 compounds, desalination to create drinking water on a mass scale along with the plethora of microplastics invading our water, fish, vegetation, and even our lungs, and we have a problem of complexity that will involve multiple, simultaneous solutions. I pray that we never get to a point of where For All the Water takes the reader, which could ultimately involve catastrophic naval warfare. The kind of U.S. and Russian submarines that could unleash 192 nuclear warheads with a range of 3,000 nautical miles and wipe125 major cities off the map.

The ‘how’ quandary refers to the platform, or the ability to reach and influence as many people as I possible. I thought long and hard about writing a non-fiction version of For All the Water, but quickly concluded that a mass scale audience could not be reached with this format. I have tried in vain to read non-fiction books about this topic and others, and after reading no more than 30-40 pages, laid them to rest in an empty bookshelf that has turned into my personal graveyard for unread books. The ultimate platform in terms of ‘reach’ would be to create a movie based on the book, a process that has already begun.